UK Wage Growth Suggests Gradual Interest Rate Cuts

(RTTNews) - The UK wage growth accelerated more than expected in the three months to October supporting a case for more gradual interest rate reductions next year as pay increases could revive inflationary pressures.

Excluding bonus, annual growth in average earnings came in at 5.2 percent compared to 4.9 percent in the three months to September, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. Economists had forecast an increase of 5.0 percent.

Earnings including bonus also grew 5.2 percent, which was faster than the forecast of 4.6 percent.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent during the August to October period. The rate came in line with expectations.

Payroll employees increased 24,000 in October from September. Further, data showed that vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 29th consecutive period. The estimated number of vacancies fell 31,000 on the quarter to 818,000 in September to November.

In November, the Bank of England had reduced its benchmark rate for the second time this year citing the continued progress in disinflation. The bank rate currently stands at 4.75 percent. The bank is widely expected to maintain status quo on December 19.

The wage data will dominate when it comes to the next couple of interest rate decisions, ING economist James Smith said. The BoE was already on course for a pause at this week's meeting long before these numbers emerged, the economist added.

In a recent FT interview, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank is likely to cut the interest rates four times next year if the outlook for the economy bears out.

The claimant count rose by 300 on month to 1.769 million in November, the ONS said.

There were an estimated 42,000 working days lost because of labor disputes across the UK in October.